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SEO A Comprehensive Handbook on Analyzing SERP and Assessing Keyword Competition

Sniperinstinct

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Are some of the images broken for you? Let me know in the comments, and I can consider uploading them to a platform like Imgur and updating this guide's images.

Do you recognize this approach to keyword research? Use a tool like Ahrefs or KWFinder to find keywords, filter for low scores/"easy" keywords, write an article, and wait for the money to roll in. But sometimes, despite these efforts, the keyword doesn't rank.

Unfortunately, many people take this approach to keyword research, as it's what the guides and gurus recommend. Even the tools themselves claim that certain keywords should be "easy" to rank for.

In this article, I'll share the steps I take when evaluating a new keyword to rank for, whether in a new or existing niche. Keyword research is both an art and a science, and there's no easy way to evaluate competition accurately. As we go through this guide, you'll see why I suggest avoiding scores and backlink estimates.

To uncover low competition keywords, using a range of tactics is crucial. In this article, I will explain how to analyze SERP and determine true keyword difficulty, both free and paid. While the focus is on affiliate terms, the strategies can be applied to any type of keyword.

This article includes numerous links to excellent resources that I highly recommend for improving your SEO knowledge.

To conduct the analysis, I will mainly use Ahrefs, a fantastic tool. However, other free tools can also be used.

For this guide, I will use the keyword "best running shoes" as an example. This is a high-volume search term that won't expose smaller or vulnerable sites, niches, or keywords, unlike more specific keywords.

Ahrefs indicates a medium keyword difficulty score (KD) of 24, meaning that approximately 27 backlinks are required to rank in the top 10 for this keyword.

When conducting competition research, I typically rely on the following factors:

  1. Backlink and referring domain count
  2. Allintitle results
  3. Relevance and search intent
  4. Content quality, length, and on-page SEO
  5. Types of websites that are ranking
  6. SERP history
To aid in this research, I use a variety of tools, including:

  1. Chrome extensions, such as MozBar, Ahrefs Bar, SEOQuake, SEO Minion, and Page Load Time
  2. Other tools, such as Ahrefs and common sense

I will discuss the process of evaluating competition in order of increasing ease, and in a step-by-step manner. Note that I will be mentioning various websites, including affiliate websites and big media-owned websites, that have been discussed on the web as case studies, but I will not reveal any confidential information.

Allintitle Results/KGR

One of the easiest and free tactics I use to assess the potential difficulty of a keyword is the Keyword Golden Ratio (KGR) and the Rule of 63. You can read more about how this formula works in the linked articles.

For keywords with over 250 monthly searches, the Rule of 63 is recommended. Let's calculate the score for our keyword:


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The keyword "277,000 results" has a monthly search volume of 52,000, but it doesn't meet the criteria for a Keyword Golden Ratio (KGR) term. With such a high search volume, the maximum number of allintitle results should be 63 to have a chance of ranking well. However, there are 277,000 competing pages for only 10 spots, making it very difficult to rank for this term.

Although some people question the effectiveness of the KGR, it can still provide useful insights. For example, it works best for long tail keywords because they have specific search intent, and if there are few allintitle results, it suggests that Google is not serving relevant results. One example of a good KGR term is "best x for x ones", which often uncovers hidden gems that don't appear in the SERP.

As a personal experiment, I've used the KGR for my new website, which has 106k words and is less than 3 months old, without any backlinks. By focusing on "best x for x" terms, I've had great success so far in ranking well. However, it's important to take the KGR with a pinch of salt and use it as a quick way to evaluate the competition.

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It is crucial to carefully evaluate a keyword by considering its order of words, spelling, and possible variations. For instance, "best mens running shoes," "best running shoes mens," "best mens shoes for running," and "best running shoes for men" may have the same meaning, but the second and third options may have few allintitle results or pages ranking for the exact term. Even though such a keyword may seem easy to rank for, it is essential to understand its context and how Google interprets the search query. Low results for the second and third options do not necessarily mean that you can rank for them, as results for the most common phrasing, such as "best running shoes for men," are likely to dominate the SERP. Competing for the top spot means contending not only with the obscure wording of a keyword but also with pages optimized for the most prevalent phrasing.


When it comes to SEO, understanding search intent and ensuring relevance are crucial factors. One of the first tactics to consider is using RankBrain, which Google has developed to better understand and interpret user search queries. This has led to more accurate SERP results, making it easier to identify irrelevant results. If a search query gets irrelevant results and has low allintitle results, it often indicates that Google is struggling to match the user's search intent.

For instance, in affiliate terms, e-commerce stores such as Amazon often rank for "best x" terms. However, this is a positive sign, as these pages are not optimized and only rank on authority. This is frequently seen in "best x for x" results, which may not be covered by many articles or appear as a header in a main "best x" article. As H1, Title Tag, URL, and other factors play a significant role in SEO, these specific terms are often easy to rank for, and can outrank the less optimized irrelevant results already ranking.


Although the top-ranked articles for a particular keyword may have strong backlinks, it may not be necessary to compete with them directly if they are targeting a slightly different keyword than yours. For example, if you are targeting "best men's running shoes," and the top-ranked articles are targeting "best running shoes for men," you may still have a chance to rank well. However, it is important to understand the context and intent of the keyword to avoid underestimating the competition.

When evaluating a keyword, it is also important to consider the order of words, spelling variations, and the variance of the keyword. For instance, "best running shoes men," "best mens shoes for running," and "best running shoes for men" have similar meanings but may get different search results. Just because the second and third results show low results doesn't mean you can rank for it as the top-ranked articles for a related keyword may still dominate the SERP.

Analyzing the number and quality of backlinks and referring domains for the top-ranked articles can provide a rough estimate of how many backlinks you may need to rank well. Internal backlinks are also crucial and often overlooked in this analysis. For a more comprehensive understanding of the significance of internal links, you may consider reading the recommended articles from Ahrefs.


If you're curious about how certain authority websites manage to rank for a specific keyword within a day, the answer might lie in their internal linking strategy. By using Ahrefs, you can analyze the internal links that point to a particular webpage. While some may see a search engine results page (SERP) with less than 10 backlinks and assume it's easy to compete, it's important to consider whether the page has homepage links and if you're up against large sites such as Top Ten Reviews or Best Products.

Let's refocus and examine the SERP for our chosen keyword.

3.PNG

Given Ahrefs' estimation, it appears that 27 backlinks would be necessary to rank on the SERP. However, it's important to note that these scores and numbers shouldn't be taken at face value. Particularly when considering the high allintitle results and examining results beyond the first page, many websites have a significant number of backlinks, making it perplexing as to why they aren't ranking on the SERP, despite Ahrefs' claim that 27 backlinks are sufficient.

To further explore this issue, let's take a closer look at the backlink quality and relevance of a few random websites on the SERP. Given the length of this article, I will only analyze the first and third results, which are related to running shoes and feature a website called "running shoes guru.


Runner's World, which appears as the top result, has garnered
2,381 backlinks
556 referring domains, out of which 423 are D0follow links.

Let's examine the D0follow links further.


If you're interested in learning more about how to assess the quality of a backlink, I recommend checking out this comprehensive article. Although I've provided a brief overview below, the article provides more in-depth information.

The links to this page are quite strong, as evidenced by their Domain Rating (DR) and the fact that many of the sites are well-known. Some of the backlinks even come from .edu domains.

While relevance is the second important factor to consider, many of the domains linking to this page are general news sites and not entirely relevant. Nonetheless, their strong authority makes up for the lack of relevance. Semi-relevant backlinks could come from running shoe manufacturers, running blogs, sports websites, or outdoor websites.

The debate over the importance of authority versus relevance in a backlink is ongoing. However, I believe that relevance trumps authority. If given the choice between a D0follow link from a small blog run by a runner versus one from a more authoritative source like WSJ, I would choose the running blog link (unless it has no authority of its own and would not pass much value).


Based on my observations, a significant number of referring domains are linking to an old page on the Runner's World website that has since been redirected to the new "best running shoes" article. Although some of these links may not be contextually or relevantly appropriate, they still carry substantial weight, contributing to the page's current #1 ranking.

It may be challenging to match the quantity and quality of backlinks for this page's strong profile without exceptional content and a substantial budget. However, for high-volume terms, ranking #1 may not always be necessary as lower-ranked pages may still receive significant traffic. Therefore, it may be worthwhile to analyze the backlink profile (along with other strategies I will discuss below) to assess the feasibility of ranking in positions #2-5.

Ahrefs indicates that Runner's World has 132 groups of similar links internally, including links from the homepage, where a website's primary authority and PageRank/Juice typically reside. Therefore, Runner's World has formidable external and internal backlinks.

Sometimes, when attempting to rank for a specific keyword, you may come across an article that you believe you can improve on and potentially "steal" backlinks from the SERP pages. In such cases, several link building tactics could be employed, such as using the Skyscraper Technique to gain your competitors' backlinks if the page ranking on the SERP can be improved.

To obtain an overlay of the number of referring domains and backlinks a page has, you can use the MozBar, Ahrefs Bar, or SEO Quake for free.



4.PNG

It's advisable to install all three toolbars and test them on a few search results to determine which is the most accurate. However, I cannot comment on the accuracy of SEO Quake, which is a SEMrush tool, or MozBar since I use the Ahrefs website.

When relying on free tools, you may not be able to delve much deeper into the types of links ranking, such as D0follow vs. Nofollow. Nonetheless, using a toolbar is a good starting point and will provide a general overview of the difficulty.

To roughly estimate the number of links required to rank, you can calculate the average backlink count per page. If you have MozBar (the others may also offer this feature), as well as Excel or Google Sheets, you can perform the following steps:

  1. Export the SERP results

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Next, you can employ the "average" function on Excel or Google Sheets to determine the average number of links per page.


This strategy involves analyzing the types of websites that are currently ranking for a particular keyword. It is possible to outrank large authority websites with fewer backlinks by creating a highly relevant and authoritative niche website that covers a specific topic comprehensively, including informative and affiliate content. In fact, micro niche websites have been observed to dominate high search volume terms in the SERP and surpass larger affiliate and general websites.

Here are some considerations for outranking different types of websites:

  • General news style websites such as Forbes and Business Insider may be outranked for certain terms.
  • Review websites like WireCutter, Best Reviews, and Top Ten Reviews may be outranked if they are not relevant to the keyword being targeted. For example, if the keyword is "best wellington boots for people with size 10 feet" and the search results only show general "best wellington boots" pages, there may be an opportunity to outrank these sites.
  • eCommerce stores may be outranked if they are ranking on authority rather than optimizing for the specific keyword. For instance, if the search results show affiliate terms like bestseller pages, it is a good sign that these pages are not optimized for the keyword and may be easier to outrank.

If the websites appearing in the SERP are thin affiliate websites, it may be possible to outrank them if they are focused on a fairly narrow niche and only have affiliate content on one topic, such as boots. On the other hand, if the websites are authority websites in the niche and dominate the SERP with a high concentration of #1-3 spots, covering informative and affiliate content, it will be much more difficult to outrank them. These highly niche-relevant websites are trusted by Google because of their narrow focus on one particular niche and are the types of websites that should be strived to build.

The ideal websites to see ranking are social media, Q&A websites, press release websites, web 2.0 platforms (such as WordPress.com and Blogspot), article submission websites, and forums. If you come across affiliate terms on these sorts of sites, it's a good sign of low competition because they are usually not optimized and do not contain much content. Niche-specific forums or general forums like Reddit and sites like Quora can be particularly valuable for affiliate marketers.

When it comes to evaluating content length and quality and on-page SEO, there are several factors to consider. To start, skim read the page's ranking and use tools like SEO Minion to check on-page factors such as headers, word count, meta and title tags, appropriate referencing, and linking to authoritative sources.

Look for signs of thin content, poorly written articles with mistakes, poor on-page SEO, slow page load times, and content that lacks authority and is not worth sharing or citing. For instance, an article may cover only one product or omit basic details, a buyer's guide, or an FAQ section, which could be improved upon.

Similar to the skyscraper technique, ask yourself if you could write better content than what's currently ranking. However, sometimes a keyword may not be worth pursuing if the top results are already in incredible depth and there's nothing you can improve upon.

It's also important to consider the type of website ranking for the keyword. Big authority sites and brands tend to have higher organic click-through rates because people trust them, even if they rank a few positions down. For instance, in the health niche, if the NHS is ranking for an easy keyword about a disease and has a higher CTR, it may not be worth trying to outrank them.

Note that this is a personal opinion, and you don't have to follow this advice. It's simply a perspective to keep in mind when evaluating content length and quality and on-page SEO.

If the SERP is filled with thin affiliate sites, rather than recognized brands, and the content is mediocre, it may be worth pursuing the keyword. This is an ideal SERP for affiliate marketers because people are less likely to have brand loyalty and will usually go for the top result. If you can improve upon the existing content, it may be worth targeting the keyword.

When it comes to on-page SEO, it's essential to evaluate how well your competitors have optimized their pages for your target keyword. One important factor for demonstrating expertise, authority, and trustworthiness (E-A-T) is using appropriate sources and citing them. Conduct a quick E-A-T evaluation of your competitors' pages to see where you can capitalize on areas they're lacking in. For further information on the Medic Update and E-A-T, refer to this article.

You should also examine on-page SEO factors such as the URL, title, headers, meta description, and main content to determine if your competitors are mentioning and optimizing for the keyword you want to rank for.

Another overlooked aspect of keyword research is SERP history. Although there are no free tools to do this, Ahrefs keyword explorer can be used to view SERP position history for specific keywords. This can be a valuable way to gauge whether Google is satisfied with the current search results or is still figuring out what's best for users.

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The top 5 pages have maintained their ranking for a significant period, with minor fluctuations in their positions. Below is the historical ranking on the search engine results page (SERP) for the keyword "twitter marketing:


7.jpg


For almost a year, the pages have been fluctuating in and out of the Top10 rankings. It is only recently that Google has seemed to determine the type of search results that best meet people's needs. This suggests that keeping track of your page's history of SERP positions can provide insight into Google's satisfaction with their search results, which in turn can affect your chances of getting your page into the Top10.

When evaluating the level of competition for a term, it is important to use common sense and consider other factors beyond just the apparent level of competition.


Low backlink count, small or thin affiliate sites ranking, and an overall low domain authority (not just based on Moz metrics, but taking into account the website's content, backlink strength, and overall authority from Google's perspective) are all factors that can affect keyword competition. Even if you've used effective tactics and methods, it's important to use common sense when analyzing keyword competition.

One way to do this is to calculate the monthly value of a keyword. If a keyword could bring in significant revenue, then it's worth asking whether it's really that easy to rank for. Sometimes, the answer is yes, but other times it's not, especially if the sites dominating the SERP are using private blog network (PBN) links. If a keyword seems too good to be true, it's worth taking the time to analyze the SERP in more detail and look for hidden PBN links.

While I'm not affiliated with the following tool, PBN Hunter from @jamie3000 can be a useful tool for discovering potential PBN links used by your competitors.

In conclusion, I hope this guide has provided you with valuable insights into evaluating keyword competition and analyzing the SERP. Practice by looking for high search volume affiliate terms, as well as obscure niches and long-tail keywords with lower search volume (under 1000 monthly searches).

  1. High volume affiliate terms examples:
  • Top-rated Bluetooth headphones
  • Best running shoes for men and women
  • Top coffee makers for home and office use
  1. I hope you found this guide helpful. Unfortunately, there were some technical issues with the platform which caused the text to jump around and paragraphs to be misplaced. However, I hope I covered everything and that the formatting is intact. It took me a while to write this guide and I truly hope it was worth your time.
  2. Summary: How to analyze competition and SERP
 

Reveluris

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I am excited to thoroughly review this information tonight. Thank you for investing your time in writing and sharing it with us.
 

DrunkenPasta

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Thanks for sharing, my friend! I'm glad this method has been helpful to you. You're welcome!
 
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